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Markets/Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

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Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$85K

Liquidity$5K

Bid / Ask0% / 3%

Spread2.80pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+2.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $85K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1976966