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Markets/Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
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Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

19% / 19%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+8.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542974