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Markets/Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
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Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

29%YES
71%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

29% / 30%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

29%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1752707

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 29%99%
Buy YES@ 29¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 71¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this