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Markets/Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
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Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

64%YES
36%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

64% / 66%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+25.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

39% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 22, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

49% → 55%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

65% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

64% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 64%99%
Buy YES@ 64¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 36¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542979