Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
64% / 66%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
55%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
49% → 55%
Mar 23, 2026
Peak probability
65% YES — highest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Current
64% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542979
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