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Markets/Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
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Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

96% / 96%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1698750

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

90% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Peak probability

96% YES — highest in period

Apr 3, 2026

Current

96% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢
Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this