Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$29K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
6% / 36%
Spread
30.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 30.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665272
This event has 2 active outcome markets. Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?: 21%, Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026?: 20%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~60%.
Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
21% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this