Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
46% / 52%
Spread
6.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665264
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
47% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this