Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
15% / 24%
Spread
9.00pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665262
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
19% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this