Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665270
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this