Markets/Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?

Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes July 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

86%YES

14%NO

Volume 24h

$25K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

86% / 86%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

86%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

90% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 86%99%

Buy YES@ 86¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 14¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on July 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1117522

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