Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Closes April 4, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$71K
Liquidity
$364K
Bid / Ask
17% / 18%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
2026
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658944
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.