Markets/Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Market Price

23%YES

77%NO

FM Estimate

23%

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$25K

Bid / Ask20% / 25%

Spread4.20pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for K

Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04

77%

Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-

Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04

23%

Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee fo

Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee for KY-04

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

23%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 4.20pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789542