Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$157K

Liquidity$133K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-22.4pp

Why this matters

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets10 markets

10 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Manchester United FC

Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03

34%

Liverpool FC

Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03

28%

Elche CF

Elche CF win on 2026-05-03

—

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $157K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2030746