Markets/Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:06 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$69K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+60.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-20.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly20.0%

½ Kelly10.0%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 20.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1203147

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