ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Closes April 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928745

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.9pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this