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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792459

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

9% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this