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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831380

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢
Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this