Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:07 PM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

7% YES (-3.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762265

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.