Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

Market Price

3%YES

97%NO

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$5K

Bid / Ask3% / 3%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesMay 4, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-0.8pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2125915