Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:33 AM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$85K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-3.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.8%

½ Kelly1.9%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $85K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423720