Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:33 AM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$663

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +5.6pp

4% → 9%

Mar 10, 2026

Peak probability

11% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $663 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423724