Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Closes April 13, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
0% / 1%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928749
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
65%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: +32.1pp
10% → 42%
Apr 12, 2026
Peak probability
66% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
65% YES (-0.8pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this