Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:33 AM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$244K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +8.2pp

5% → 13%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

13% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+6.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $244K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423726