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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800068

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%
½ Kelly3.5%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this