Markets/Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:05 PM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

-0.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762270

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.