Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
16% / 17%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943732
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
19% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
17% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this