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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Closes April 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
73%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

26% / 28%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1943734

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

28% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 73¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this