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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
83%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$37K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800077

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

18% YES — highest in period

Apr 6, 2026

Current

18% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢
Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this