ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800086

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

6% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this