Markets/Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$51K

Liquidity

$39K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: +6.2pp

3% → 10%

Mar 19, 2026

Current

13% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

-1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.5%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542962