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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES
73%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

27% / 28%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792450

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢
Edge

+1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 73¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this