Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?

Market Price

54%YES

46%NO

FM Estimate

91%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

4.7pp

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$5K

Bid / Ask86% / 87%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 2, 2026

News velocity+4.7pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+45.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2097828