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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

20% / 21%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831371

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

24% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

20% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 20%99%
Buy YES@ 20¢
Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this