Markets/Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:24 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

6% / 8%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

9% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1651994

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