Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$327K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $327K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762258
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -41.0pp
54% → 13%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
56% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this