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Markets/Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792447

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+14.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this