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Markets/Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831368

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this