Markets/Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:06 PM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$57K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+3.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

6% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $57K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762255

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.