ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800089

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this