ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Closes April 14, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1854223

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this