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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$35K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+5.3pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1752823

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Current

2% YES (+1.1pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this