Markets/Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:24 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$37K

Liquidity

$30K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $37K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668631