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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

39%YES
62%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

38% / 39%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792453

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

39% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

39% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 39%99%
Buy YES@ 39¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 62¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this