ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

33%YES
68%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

33% / 34%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831374

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

33% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 33%99%
Buy YES@ 33¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this