ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?

Closes April 8, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES
67%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

33% / 34%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1862457

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Apr 5, 2026

Current

34% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 67¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this