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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

88%YES
13%NO

Volume 24h

$100K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

87% / 88%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

88%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $100K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762260

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+47.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +28.0pp

24% → 52%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

85% YES (+3.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 88%99%
Buy YES@ 88¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.0%
½ Kelly2.0%
Buy NO@ 13¢

-4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this