ForecastMind
Markets/Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
Share on X

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792456

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

23% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

23% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this