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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?

Closes April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

21% / 22%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891906

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

22% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this