Markets/Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 02:11 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

30%YES

70%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

29% / 31%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

30% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 70¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672919

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.