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Markets/Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
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Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$142K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $142K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762262

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

24% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +18.6pp

6% → 24%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

14% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 15%99%
Buy YES@ 15¢
Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this